Recently, the paper "Technical Development Pathway for a Low Carbon Primary Aluminum Industry in China" by Professor Yu Biying and students Zhang Shuai and Zhao Zihao of the center was published in the international journal "technical forecasting & social change".

   China is the world's largest producer of primary aluminum. Due to its high energy consumption and high emission, China's primary aluminum smelting industry urgently needs green transformation.In order to speed up the green transformation of the primary aluminum smelting industry and  hit peak carbon emissions as soon as possible, this study constructs the national energy technology-aluminum (net-al) model.The model comprehensively simulates the energy-saving and emission reduction effects  of eliminating backward production capacity, promoting advanced technology and optimizing power structure  on the primary aluminum smelting industry, and puts forward the economic optimal technical development path to realize the low-carbon transformation of the primary aluminum smelting industry.

   The research results show that China's demand for primary aluminum will continue to grow in the short term, and is expected to reach a peak in 2025, with a demand of about 41 million tons. The energy consumption of China's primary aluminum smelting industry will peak during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and the carbon dioxide emission is expected to peak in 2025, with a peak of about 550 million tons. Advanced technologies have significant energy conservation and emission reduction effects. Compared with Business-as-usual, the advanced technologies that make the greatest contribution to energy conservation in alumina refining process and aluminum electrolysis process are seven － effect tubular falling film evaporation technology ( Gibbsite) and new diversion structure energy-saving combination technology of aluminum reduction cell, respectively, accounting for 23.9% and 15.8%. By comprehensively implementing various energy conservation and emission reduction measures, China's primary aluminum smelting industry can not only achieve energy conservation and emission reduction, but also is expected to bring positive benefits.

Production process of primary aluminum industry in China.

Total CO2 emissions for each scenario.

The advanced technology promotion under the AT scenario.

Original link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121052